NO CARROT, BIG STICK: Beijing’s strategy is to deter and repress political attitudes supporting Taiwanese independence, although the use of force would be a last resort
Taipei Times
Aug 18, 2010
By William Lowther
STAFF REPORTER , WASHINGTON
A new Pentagon report on the Chinese military concludes that Beijing is rapidly expanding its armed forces “to deter, delay or deny” any possible US support for Taiwan in case of a conflict.
The report warns that despite the efforts of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) to increase economic and cultural ties, China’s military buildup continues unabated.
“The balance of cross-strait military forces continues to shift in [China’s] favor,” the report says.
The long-awaited analysis, which comes about six months after its promised delivery date, paints a grim picture at a time when US-China relations are already strained over problems with North Korea and Beijing’s disputed territorial claims in the South China Sea.
Titled Annual Report on Security Developments Involving China, the 74-page document says China’s military growth and plans remain largely a mystery to the US.
At the same time, Beijing’s continued refusal to reveal its military’s intentions “increases the potential for misunderstanding and miscalculation,” the report says.
“Extreme secrecy is increasingly difficult to reconcile with China’s role in the integrated global economy, which depends on transparency,” it says.
“Despite a reduction in tensions … the possibility of a military conflict with Taiwan and US military intervention remain the PLA’s [People’s Liberation Army] most pressing long-term military concerns,” the report says.
“A potential cross-strait conflict will drive China’s military modernization as long as China’s leaders judge that the permanent loss of Taiwan could seriously undermine the regime’s political legitimacy and hold on power,” it says. “As part of its planning for a Taiwan contingency, China continues to develop measures to deter or counter third-party intervention, including by the United States, in any future cross-strait crisis.”
“China’s approach to dealing with this challenge is manifest in a sustained effort to develop the capability to attack, at long ranges, military forces that might deploy or operate within the western Pacific,” the report says.
Beijing’s strategy toward Taiwan, the report says, incorporates “elements of persuasion and coercion” to deter or repress the development of political attitudes in Taiwan favoring independence.
“The PLA has developed and deployed military capabilities to coerce Taiwan or to attempt an invasion if necessary,” it says.   more … (Note: This link may take as long as 20 seconds to open.)
